We need energy and security (not Fail Baltic)

The core nature of the imperialist Russian "culture" is expecting respect for nothing. Apart from the marginal minority they don't deserve any, and they know it. However, instead of looking into the mirror and fixing themselves, they keep blaming, and bullying everyone else, first and foremost their neighbours. Ne uvazajesh, stoli?

Estonia and other Baltic States have decided to cut off from the Russian electricity network. There are many reasons for that, but the most important one is that Ruzzians cannot be trusted. Russia has weaponized its energy and using it to spread "the Russian love" with rockets that have no analogs. Our  decision was made a long time ago and obviously, Orcs have taken it personally - another sign of disrespect that must be punished. It would have been extremely naive to think that Orcs are letting things just go. Potsemu nas ne ljubite?

Well, you have just proved the case, not the first time.

Cutting the ties from Orcs started when the first Estlink cable between Estonia and Finland was inaugurated in 2006 and the Baltics connected to Scandinavian, mostly green energy sources. Estonia joined the Nordpool energy market in 2010, which looked perfect initially with affordable prices. As we have learned, the prices were too affordable and that was one of the reasons why needed investments into local power plants were not made. Latvia and Lithuania joined the Nordpool market three years later and several other seabed cable connections were also built to link Scandinavia. There are also land connections towards central European networks. 

Finland and the Baltics were buying some energy from Russia until the Orcs started the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Since then the networks are still connected, but only frequency stabilisation service is provided from Russia. The plan is to completely disconnect in February 2025.

The problem in the Baltics is that we are lacking local manageable energy. The Ignalina nuclear power plant has been decommissioned and will be demolished as per EU agreement. Since 2009 Lithuania has been a net buyer likewise the whole Baltics.

Estonia has produced its own energy from oil shale, which is far from environmentally friendly. Due to CO2 pricing, it has also become costly. The positive side is that it is manageable, and we use the plants only when there is high demand and lack of other energy sources. We have to pay for the high cost, and there is no doubt that it is affecting our economy.

Some smaller plants use gas (no longer sourced from Russia) or wood and there are a few waste-to-energy plants. Solar and wind plants have been developed and the plan is to cover the future energy needs 100% from sustainable sources. But these sources are not manageable and there is excess during windy summer days and total dependence on the Scandinavian energy during dark and windless winter days. Hydropower is very limited in flat geography, but there are some plans to build accumulation plants to save low-price excess energy from wind and solar. 

So until local manageable energy sources are built (and they will take tens of years) we are highly dependent on the cables laid down into the Baltic Sea. Unfortunately, we have failed to assess the risks properly and understand the essential need for local energy sources. 

At the same time, Russia built the Ust-Luga port and diverted all the cargo including their bloody oil together with the revenue from our ports. The tankers that sail the fragile Baltic Sea are completely out of our control.

With Russians, you can only expect the unexpected. Using the shadow fleet tankers with lousy sailors losing their anchors is just the cheapest means to create damage and it makes it difficult to bind the responsibility to Orcs. The Finns have taken the lesson and the third successful attempt was intercepted in quality that conveys a clear message that Orcs understand. But this only means that they will not stop but will start using alternative methods of destruction.

Patching the cables is extremely costly and time-consuming. It is very optimistic to assume the civilised world can make the Orcs pay in the end. Fixing the Estlink 2 cable will cost more than 30 million, but even a 10% increase in kWh price for 7 months will empty pockets of Estonians 10fold. 

Cutting cables in international waters is not the only way Orcs could sabotage our energy system, but this is not the place to share the "great ideas".

Even when we eventually have more local and secure energy sources, the need for cross-border connections remains. These connections must be made Orc-proof. The existing cables will need active, military protection in the short run, but a long-term solution is physical protection only.

A railway tunnel between Tallinn and Helsinki has been proposed but shelved due to feasibility. It would be the longest undersea railway tunnel with a moderately realistic cost estimate of 30+ billion Euros in todays prices. The governments of Estonia and Finland have prepared a high-level feasibility study. As a result, a memorandum of understanding was signed to put the tunnel on the map as a Trans-European project.

In parallel the Finnish businessman Peter Vesterbäcka has developed a general solution and a business idea as a Finest Area development hub, but since his plan involved financing with Chinese Yuans, the Estonian government refused to start a Special Spatial Plan and Environmental Impact Assessment procedures. Letting the Chinese control our lifeline infrastructure would of course be dumb as f***. But it is worth taking the notes from Finest tunnel project with two artificial islands. Vesterbäckas estimate was only 15 billion and the trains were supposed to run in Christmas 2024. Didn't happen.

It is time to put the project on the desk now. Not for the sake of railway connection, but for the safe communication and energy transfer.

A typical under-sea bored railway tunnel consists of three tubes. It can be seen in the Channel Tunnel aka La Manche tunnel.

The typical section of Eurotunnel. Wikipedia. By Original by Arz, tiny modification by Commander Keane. - Modified version of Image:Eurotunnel schema.svg, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=3581241

The trains run in two bigger tubes (A) of 9 to 12m in diameter (depending on the clearance, and safety and ventilation requirements) that are connected with safety and maintenance cross tunnels (C) and an intermediate communication and service tube (B) that has a typical diameter of ca 5 to 6 meters.

An alternative under the sea tunnelling method is the immersed tunnel which is currently in use to build the Fehmarnbelt fixed link. This method is not suitable between Tallinn and Helsinki due to the hard base rock on the Finnish side that deepens on the Estonian side. Also, to make the tunnel Orc-proof, it should be deep enough below the sea and inaccessible from the seabed. Immersed tunnels are loosely protected from the top.

Drill and blast is the most common method used in the hard base rock in Finland and in wider Scandinavia. This method is also viable on the Finnish side of the Talsinki tunnel.

Tunnel boring with Tunnel Boring Machines (TBMs) has become a commodity. Thousands of kilometres of tunnels are bored each year. In addition to mobility/transport tunnels (trains, metros, etc) communication tunnels have become widely used. In Singapore, the whole energy network is moved underground to make the network safe and to free land under the transmission lines for better use. The network will have a total of 1800 km of cables in tunnels of 6m in diameter.

The cost of tunnel boring depends on the size and grows exponentially with added diameter. That is why making a Talsinki or Hellinn train tunnel is not feasible in the foreseeable future. However, a 5m diameter communication tunnel can cost as little as 10 million euros per km. The boring speed depends on the soil conditions, but even in hard rock 300m could be bored in one month.

The plan prepared by the Vesterbäcka team proposed simultaneous drilling with several TBMs. Since the tunnel would be nearly 100km long, intermediate ventilation and safety shafts are needed. The soil (crushed rock) from the excavation needs to be piled somewhere. All this leads to a logical proposal to have at least two artificial islands in the Baltic Sea that accommodate the removed soil and provide vertical shafts to the tunnels, but the added value would be reclaimed land suitable for development. The biggest benefit would be narrowing the international water channel and setting up a controlled gateway. The islands could be used as a military/border guard posts.

Having 4 starting shafts and 6 TBMs, the tunnel could be completed within 3 years. At least in theory.

Boring tunnels has always risks and geotechnical conditions cannot be ensured meter by meter. The biggest risks are related to underground water streams in between limestone layers, base rock cracks or inside granular soils. Ground freezing may be needed to tackle those situations that would add cost. 

Boring a relatively small communication tunnel has fewer risks and is actually the best way to ensure the geotechnical conditions before drilling or digging the bigger tubes for the trains later. The same strategy was used in The Channel Tunnel where the initial cost estimate was exceeded "only" 2fold. 

The high-voltage power cables have a relatively short lifetime - up to 30 years. The tunnels would be built for 100 years at least thus allowing replacement and recycling of the cables. The tunnel can accommodate several power cables, communication cables and also a gas pipeline if need be. With maximum Orc-proof.

The Baltic States have demonstrated complete ignorance and extreme levels of wishful thinking in Rail Baltic high-speed rail project. It is a disaster project that has failed all deadlines and budget promises. Any critics (including myself) have been stamped as enemies of the project and even as Russian agents. Well, shame is on your side. 

Our biggest enemy is not Russia, but our own ignorance. If we fail to understand Russia and related risks, the real needs for energy sourcing, safety, security, and sustainability, we simply let Russia vandalise and make us poor. As we can see in Ukraine, we need to secure our skies, borders and shores. Railway functions 500 km away from the front, but not at the front. 

Rail Baltic has little benefits at extremely high cost. It has been advertised and sold to us as a sustainable transport project. The latest Cost-Benefit Analysis prepared by an American consultancy has filled the report with nonsense. Since the previous bullshit by Ernst Young in 2017 was revealed, they had to come up with new illusions. "No" is not an acceptable answer for the project apologists, hence to download the report from the consultants page has legal terms you have to agree. I have seen the report, but not downloaded it, so..

 

Bullshit aside the report reveals the ugly truth - the environmental benefits from the project are only 16% of 23 billion Euro CAPEX (which is not even 100% of the full project investment). In translation this means that we do 5 times more harm to the environment than good, because the investment cost pretty much defines the amount of harm (materials, transport, reduced greenfield). The rest of the benefits are travel savings in a form of "money comes from the wall". 

The only correct feasibility study regarding Rail Baltic was the one prepared by Cowi (kudos to Danish engineers for their professional ethics that Americans constantly fail to have, just do googling yourself) before there was an established project organisation that depends on the project and sucks the money from the wall without shame. It resulted in a fair and realistic outcome: new high-speed rail line through Baltics is not feasible simply because of the population density and size of the economies. Even bettering the existing railway lines is not feasible, but considering that they do exist and they need to be maintained anyway, the near feasible option would have been raising the safety standard and speed to 160kph on existing railways. Almost 15 years later this is under works in Estonia between Tallinn and Tartu, looking forward to cover the distance in 90 minutes in 2025. That's in case we still have electricity to power the trains. We still have the diesels though.

So let's stop the nonsense and start building something that actually improves our lives, ensures safety and leaves Orcs to their own devices.  

Happy 2025! Stay safe! Be smart! Slava Ukraini!

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Cover image: Dall-E with my prompts.